Nashville's housing market looked flat in September. Look one layer down, and condos were the story.

Greater Nashville Realtors reported September closings essentially even with last year, up 0.14%. Inside that flat headline, condo sales rose 13% year over year. Single family home prices climbed 4%, while condo prices rose just under 1%. Inventory grew 6% to nearly six months of supply.

That combination, rising condo volume with nearly flat condo prices, tells you more about where this market is heading than the headline does.

Why condos are carrying the volume

Start with the middle of the market. Sales in the $300,000 to $499,000 range fell 8% in September. That is the band where first time and move up buyers compete for single family homes, and at today's rates many of them are priced out or sitting still. Condos are the release valve. A buyer who cannot make a house payment work can often make a condo work, and September's numbers show them doing exactly that.

At the top end, the opposite force is at work. Sales above $1 million rose in September. Luxury buyers are less rate sensitive, and Nashville's new generation of full service towers is giving them a product that did not exist here five years ago. Buildings like Paramount at Nashville Yards, already 50% sold before completion, are pulling demand that used to leave for other cities.

What six months of inventory changes

Nearly six months of supply is the most balanced this market has been in years, and it changes the negotiation. Buyers have choices again, and they have time. Sellers no longer set the price and watch a line form. The homes and condos that sell quickly now are the ones priced to the current market, not the one from two years ago.

For condo sellers specifically, September's 13% jump in sales is a window. Volume is there. Pricing discipline is what separates a closing from a listing that sits while inventory builds around it.

What I am watching next

Three things will decide whether September was a blip or a turn. First, whether condo volume holds through the fall, when activity normally cools. Second, whether the $300K to $499K band recovers, since that segment drives the whole chain of move up sales. Third, how the pre-construction pipeline absorbs. Nashville has thousands of new residences in the ground or in sales now, tracked on my Nashville developments index, and their pace will set pricing for resales around them.

The bottom line

Flat overall, strong for condos, balanced for the first time in years. For buyers, that means selection and leverage you have not had recently. For sellers, it means the market will reward a well prepared, well priced listing and punish anything else.

If you want to talk through what these numbers mean for your building or your search, call me at (615) 300-2602.